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APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$305.77
-3.00 (-0.97%) ▼
5d: -3.07%
30d: -23.34%
90d: -37.07%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Protect Your APP Gains
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $346.80 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$990.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$615.17
50.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $305.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $326.55 to $430.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.0) compared to its historical average (26.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $298.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $528.32 (+72.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $326.55 - $430.16
Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 72.8% below Wall St target ($528.32)
  • NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $326.55 - $430.16
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $298.00
Resistance Level $350.28
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.03
Wall Street Target $528.32 (+72.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 52.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 57.0%
Profit Margin 64.6%
Valuation Discount vs History -17.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical 15.0 vs 26.7 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -17.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $275.19 (-10%)
2-Year Target $247.67 (-19%)
3-Year Target $222.91 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→27) $396.11 (+30%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 29.4%) $885.03 (+189%)
Base: (SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 29.4%) $662.57 (+117%)
Bear: (PE: 12.8, Growth: 29.4%) $563.19 (+84%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.94
Bull Case $534.15 (+75%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case $485.60 (+59%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case $209.96 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 26.7
Stabilization Target: $543.36 (+77.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +77.7%
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Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is APP showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30
Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-03-18

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Advanced APP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APP price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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