APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$498.76
21.68 (4.54%)
▲
5d:
+6.26%
30d:
-16.86%
90d:
+30.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 29, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.1% annual earnings decline despite 113% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.1% annual earnings decline despite 113% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1028.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$638.58
21.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $498.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $469.68 to $571.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.6) compared to its historical average (28.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 113.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $418.46, while resistance sits at $530.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $650.30 (+30.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $418.46, while resistance sits at $530.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $650.30 (+30.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$469.68 -
$571.10
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.4% below Wall St target ($650.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$469.68 -
$571.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$418.46
Resistance Level
$530.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.61
Wall Street Target
$650.30
(+30.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
113.1%
Profit Margin
64.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.6 vs 28.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$468.34
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$439.77
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$412.94
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→29)
$498.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.6, Growth: 31.3%)
$1128.74
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 31.3%)
$1041.24
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 31.3%)
$885.06
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.50
Bull Case
$964.00
(+93%)
Analyst growth 83.7%, PE expands to 45.6
Base Case
$876.37
(+76%)
Market implied 83.7%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$324.41
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.6 to 28.5
Stabilization Target:
$602.06
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 30, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-30
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BUY
2026-03-23
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SELL
2026-03-18
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