AQN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AQN - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp
$5.98
0.07 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
-0.5%
30d:
+0.17%
90d:
-4.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AQN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.59
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AQN is currently trading at $5.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.85 to $5.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.80 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AQN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.80 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.85 -
$5.98
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($6.80)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.85 -
$5.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.83
Resistance Level
$6.07
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.88
Wall Street Target
$6.80
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.81
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$5.64
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$5.47
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$5.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$12.37
(+107%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$8.45
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 12.2%)
$7.19
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$10.00
(+67%)
Analyst growth 54.5%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$9.09
(+52%)
Market implied 54.5%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$4.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$6.51
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 11:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AQN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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