ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$7.36
-0.04 (-0.54%)
▼
5d:
+2.22%
30d:
+30.73%
90d:
+12.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.20
39.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $7.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.58 to $7.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 201.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.75, while resistance sits at $7.88.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 12/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.51 (+42.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.75, while resistance sits at $7.88.
Market Sentiment: ASM scores 12/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.51 (+42.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$5.58 -
$7.17
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (12/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.8% below Wall St target ($10.51)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.58 -
$7.17
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.75
Resistance Level
$7.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.98
Wall Street Target
$10.51
(+42.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
201.9%
Profit Margin
38.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 12.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.96
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.37
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$7.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 70.8%)
$55.49
(+654%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 70.8%)
$24.84
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 70.8%)
$21.11
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.26
Bull Case
$16.28
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$14.80
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$5.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.09
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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