ASTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASTH - Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock
$39.59
0.42 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
+2.51%
30d:
+2.14%
90d:
+63.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASTH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ASTH is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.36
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASTH is currently trading at $39.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.60 to $39.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.00 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.00 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.60 -
$39.07
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
41th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASTH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.60 -
$39.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.34
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.00
Resistance Level
$40.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.61
Wall Street Target
$46.00
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
110.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.21
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$42.90
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$44.66
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.62
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.8%)
$118.28
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 16.8%)
$63.05
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 16.8%)
$53.59
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.72
Bull Case
$47.80
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$39.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$30.29
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASTH price and gamma walls.
