Astrana Health (ASTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASTH - Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock
$37.98
-0.05 (-0.13%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.4%
30d:
+6.12%
90d:
-4.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $37.82 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ASTH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ASTH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.32
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.07
0.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASTH is currently trading at $37.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.20 to $39.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $36.66, while resistance sits at $39.40.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.50 (+35.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $36.66, while resistance sits at $39.40.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.50 (+35.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.20 -
$39.28
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASTH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.6% below Wall St target ($51.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.20 -
$39.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$3.37
(8.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.66
Resistance Level
$39.40
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.73
Wall Street Target
$51.50
(+35.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
110.5%
Profit Margin
1.1%
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.98
(0%)
2-Year Target
$37.98
(0%)
3-Year Target
$37.98
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.4%)
$112.75
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 16.4%)
$59.97
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 16.4%)
$50.98
(+34%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (46x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$83.67
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.0
Base Case
$76.06
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.4
Bear Case
$25.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 10:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ASTH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASTH price and gamma walls.
