ASTH
Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock
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Astrana Health (ASTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$33.01
+0.83 (+2.58%)
▲
5d:
-16.79%
30d:
-12.83%
90d:
-12.65%
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Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect ASTH Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (65%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$35.18 – $38.48
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.9x
CHEAP
vs 10.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$52.11
+61.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$31.39 / $41.00
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ASTH is down 16.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.49
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.66
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASTH is currently trading at $33.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.18 to $38.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3331.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.39, while resistance sits at $41.00.
Market Sentiment: ASTH scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.11 (+61.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASTH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.39, while resistance sits at $41.00.
Market Sentiment: ASTH scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.11 (+61.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.18 -
$38.48
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$35.18 -
$38.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.99
(9.1%)
Support Level
$31.39
Resistance Level
$41.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASTH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.9% below Wall St target ($52.11)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$52.11
(+61.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3331.0%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.28
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$28.49
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$26.81
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$32.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.6%)
$120.45
(+274%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 18.6%)
$53.67
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 18.6%)
$45.62
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$74.29
(+131%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$67.54
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$22.96
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$38.55
(+19.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ASTH)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Astrana Health, Inc. ($ASTH) experienced a 7.3% surge in share price, driven by strong financial performance and a positive outlook from Barclays. The company reported significant sales, EBITDA, and free cash flow growth in the first quarter.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong financial performance
Positive outlook from Barclays
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Advanced ASTH Option Strategies
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