AVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVA - Avista Corporation
$39.71
-0.05 (-0.13%)
▼
5d:
-6.41%
30d:
-3.52%
90d:
+3.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.12
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVA is currently trading at $39.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.44 to $42.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $39.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $39.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.44 -
$42.06
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.67)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.44 -
$42.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.07
Resistance Level
$42.95
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.23
Wall Street Target
$41.67
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$39.16
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$38.88
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$39.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$74.98
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$48.99
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$41.64
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$48.63
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.2%, PE expands to 17.4
Base Case
$44.20
(+11%)
Market implied 11.2%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$27.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.46
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexis G Alexander
SELL
555 shares
2026-03-13
Bryan Alden Cox
SELL
1768 shares
2026-02-26
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