AXSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXSM - Axsome Therapeutics, Inc
$237.92
-4.05 (-1.67%)
▼
5d:
-5.55%
30d:
+0.83%
90d:
+49.87%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AXSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AXSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$206.22
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXSM is currently trading at $237.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.41 to $248.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 40.4) compared to its historical average (97.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $236.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $276.47 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $236.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $276.47 (+16.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$229.41 -
$248.42
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AXSM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($276.47)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$229.41 -
$248.42
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$14.85
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$236.44
Resistance Level
$260.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.41
Wall Street Target
$276.47
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
57.4%
Profit Margin
-26.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
40.4 vs 97.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$214.13
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$192.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$173.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→98)
$419.31
(+76%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 40.4 to 97.7
Stabilization Target:
$575.18
(+141.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+141.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 25, 2026 3:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ari Maizel
SELL
7500 shares
2026-04-22
Mark Coleman
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Mark L Jacobson
SELL
35378 shares
2026-02-26
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Advanced AXSM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXSM price and gamma walls.
