Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXSM - Axsome Therapeutics, Inc
$220.75
9.63 (4.56%)
▲
5d:
+5.95%
30d:
+2.84%
90d:
-13.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXSM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -17.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXSM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -17.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.34
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXSM is currently trading at $220.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $205.00 to $215.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 43.9) compared to its historical average (76.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $197.05, while resistance sits at $229.62. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AXSM scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $285.42 (+29.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $197.05, while resistance sits at $229.62. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AXSM scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $285.42 (+29.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$205.00 -
$215.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 29.3% below Wall St target ($285.42)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$205.00 -
$215.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$197.05
Resistance Level
$229.62
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
43.85
Wall Street Target
$285.42
(+29.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
-24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
43.9 vs 76.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$198.67
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$178.81
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$160.93
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 44→77)
$281.84
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 43.9 to 76.8
Stabilization Target:
$386.61
(+75.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+75.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 6:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ari Maizel
SELL
7500 shares
2026-04-22
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Advanced AXSM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXSM price and gamma walls.
