Is AXSM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AXSM is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AXSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AXSM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AXSM to be between $217.44 and $241.99. The current price is $213.67.

What is the analyst price target for AXSM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AXSM is $283.90. This implies a potential upside of 32.9% from current levels.

AXSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AXSM - Axsome Therapeutics, Inc

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

$213.67

-0.01 (0.00%) ▼

5d: +0.44%

30d: -9.86%

90d: -8.01%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AXSM Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 10, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $220.89 · last confirmed Aug 11, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AXSM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$195.81

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$121.59

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AXSM is currently trading at $213.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $217.44 to $241.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 38.2) compared to its historical average (81.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AXSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $206.94, while resistance sits at $223.40.

Market Sentiment: AXSM scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $283.90 (+32.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $217.44 - $241.99

Company Quality Score 66/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 32.9% below Wall St target ($283.90)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $217.44 - $241.99

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $206.94

Resistance Level $223.40

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 38.22

Wall Street Target $283.90 (+32.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 45.5%

Profit Margin -24.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -22.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 38.2 vs 81.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -22.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $192.30 (-10%)

2-Year Target $173.07 (-19%)

3-Year Target $155.77 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 38→82) $333.75 (+56%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 38.2 to 81.9

Stabilization Target: $457.82 (+114.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +114.3%

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is AXSM showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ari Maizel SELL 7500 shares 2026-04-22

Mark Coleman SELL 25000 shares 2026-02-26

Mark L Jacobson SELL 35378 shares 2026-02-26

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Advanced AXSM Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXSM price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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