BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$19.10
0.40 (2.14%)
▲
5d:
+11.31%
30d:
+9.58%
90d:
-13.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BILI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BILI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.75
35.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $19.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.83 to $18.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.1) compared to its historical average (2.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.61 (+55.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.13. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BILI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.61 (+55.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.83 -
$18.41
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.0% below Wall St target ($29.61)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.83 -
$18.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.14
Resistance Level
$19.13
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.10
Wall Street Target
$29.61
(+55.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.1 vs 2.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.59
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$16.20
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$14.92
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$19.22
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 29.9%)
$414.03
(+2068%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.1, Growth: 29.9%)
$41.86
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.8, Growth: 29.9%)
$35.58
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$41.14
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.1
Base Case
$37.40
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.4
Bear Case
$12.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.1 to 2.7
Stabilization Target:
$24.60
(+28.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 3:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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