BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$17.06
0.40 (2.40%)
▲
5d:
-2.18%
30d:
-2.46%
90d:
-2.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BILI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BILI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.76
40.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $17.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.28 to $18.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.41, while resistance sits at $19.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.88 (+75.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.41, while resistance sits at $19.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.88 (+75.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.28 -
$18.73
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 75.1% below Wall St target ($29.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.28 -
$18.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.41
Resistance Level
$19.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.86
Wall Street Target
$29.88
(+75.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.35
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.82
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$17.34
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 30.5%)
$408.37
(+2294%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 30.5%)
$37.94
(+122%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 30.5%)
$32.25
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.48
Bull Case
$36.65
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.2
Base Case
$33.32
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.7
Bear Case
$11.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.6
Stabilization Target:
$23.79
(+39.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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