BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$17.30
-0.55 (-3.08%)
▼
5d:
-1.76%
30d:
-9.28%
90d:
-35.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BILI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BILI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.08
46.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $17.30, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.14 to $20.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.61 (+71.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.61 (+71.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.14 -
$20.29
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 71.2% below Wall St target ($29.61)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.14 -
$20.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.14
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.89
Wall Street Target
$29.61
(+71.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.01
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.61
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$19.34
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 30.6%)
$443.91
(+2466%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 30.6%)
$38.54
(+123%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 30.6%)
$32.76
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$39.27
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.1
Base Case
$35.70
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 36.4
Bear Case
$12.14
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.9
Stabilization Target:
$26.53
(+53.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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