CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$58.03
-0.71 (-1.21%)
▼
5d:
+1.03%
30d:
+11.55%
90d:
+17.76%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.41
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $58.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.43 to $56.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CBSH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CBSH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$52.43 -
$56.95
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($59.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.43 -
$56.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.55
Resistance Level
$59.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.17
Wall Street Target
$59.25
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.71
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$61.44
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$63.23
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.11
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.6%)
$113.02
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 5.6%)
$68.32
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 5.6%)
$58.08
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$69.97
(+21%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$63.61
(+10%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$39.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Dunn
BUY
2500 shares
2026-03-13
Kim L Jakovich
SELL
949 shares
2026-03-05
Margaret M Rowe
SELL
861 shares
2026-03-05
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