Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$58.25
-0.04 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
-0.21%
30d:
-2.45%
90d:
+5.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CBSH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CBSH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.61
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $58.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.02 to $59.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CBSH scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.56 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CBSH scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.56 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$58.02 -
$59.56
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($66.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.02 -
$59.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.07
Resistance Level
$59.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.71
Wall Street Target
$66.56
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.89
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$59.54
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$60.19
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.4%)
$111.48
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 6.4%)
$70.26
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 6.4%)
$59.72
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$71.83
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.0%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$65.30
(+12%)
Market implied 12.0%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$39.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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