Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$55.89
-0.14 (-0.25%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.48%
30d:
+2.95%
90d:
-6.85%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (63%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$54.66 â $55.94
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.2x
FAIR
vs 12.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$64.06
+14.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$54.68 / $57.49
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CBSH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.21
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $55.89, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.66 to $55.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.06 (+14.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $54.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.06 (+14.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$54.66 -
$55.94
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$54.66 -
$55.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$54.68
Resistance Level
$57.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($64.06)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.24
Wall Street Target
$64.06
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Profit Margin
31.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.83
(0%)
2-Year Target
$55.78
(0%)
3-Year Target
$55.72
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â12)
$55.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$110.79
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 6.9%)
$68.28
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 6.9%)
$58.04
(+4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$67.81
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$61.65
(+10%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$38.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$56.16
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CBSH)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Feb 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits shows 100.0% bullish sentiment towards $CBSH with no recent news articles available.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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