CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$55.96
0.88 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+2.27%
30d:
+7.22%
90d:
+16.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.34
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $55.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.21 to $54.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $56.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CBSH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $56.06. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CBSH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.21 -
$54.23
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($58.69)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.21 -
$54.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.56
Resistance Level
$56.07
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.77
Wall Street Target
$58.69
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.08
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$58.22
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$59.39
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.5%)
$112.06
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 5.5%)
$65.68
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$55.82
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$65.26
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$59.33
(+6%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$37.45
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Dunn
BUY
2500 shares
2026-03-13
Kim L Jakovich
SELL
949 shares
2026-03-05
Margaret M Rowe
SELL
861 shares
2026-03-05
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