Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$56.51
1.37 (2.48%)
▲
5d:
+1.71%
30d:
+1.65%
90d:
-4.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in -0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in -0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.27
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $56.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.49 to $56.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $56.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.39 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $56.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.39 (+13.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$54.49 -
$56.87
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($64.39)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.49 -
$56.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.59
Resistance Level
$56.60
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.27
Wall Street Target
$64.39
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
31.6%
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.51
(0%)
2-Year Target
$56.51
(0%)
3-Year Target
$56.51
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$56.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.7%)
$114.29
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$70.59
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$60.00
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.15
Bull Case
$67.33
(+19%)
Analyst growth 11.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$61.21
(+8%)
Market implied 11.0%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$37.50
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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