CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$58.38
-0.42 (-0.71%)
▼
5d:
-3.14%
30d:
-0.46%
90d:
+11.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CBSH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.05
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $58.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.67 to $59.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.22 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.22 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$58.67 -
$59.82
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($65.22)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.67 -
$59.82
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.31
Resistance Level
$60.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.75
Wall Street Target
$65.22
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$59.91
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$60.69
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.7%)
$111.64
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 6.7%)
$70.94
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 6.7%)
$60.30
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$72.75
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.5%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$66.14
(+13%)
Market implied 12.5%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$39.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Dunn
BUY
2500 shares
2026-03-13
Kim L Jakovich
SELL
949 shares
2026-03-05
Margaret M Rowe
SELL
861 shares
2026-03-05
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