CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$51.36
-0.66 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-1.14%
30d:
-0.73%
90d:
-1.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
Get Alerted When CBSH Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CBSH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CBSH shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.34
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $51.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.20 to $52.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.62, while resistance sits at $53.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.69 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $49.62, while resistance sits at $53.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.69 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$51.20 -
$52.31
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.20 -
$52.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.62
Resistance Level
$53.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.72
Wall Street Target
$58.69
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.95
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$50.54
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$50.14
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$51.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$112.72
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 5.5%)
$60.28
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 5.5%)
$51.24
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$61.55
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$55.96
(+8%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$35.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$52.61
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:27 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Dunn
BUY
2500 shares
2026-03-13
Kim L Jakovich
SELL
949 shares
2026-03-05
Margaret M Rowe
SELL
861 shares
2026-03-05
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FITB
Fifth Third Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$57 | 61 BUY |
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$20 | 62 BUY |
|
CFG
Citizens Financial Group… |
BUY
21 analysts |
$73 | 53 HOLD |
|
TFC
Truist Financial Corp |
HOLD
23 analysts |
$56 | 50 HOLD |
|
RF
Regions Financial Corpor… |
HOLD
22 analysts |
$31 | 59 HOLD |
