Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$55.28
0.45 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
-2.06%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
-5.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CBSH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CBSH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.12
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $55.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.90 to $58.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CBSH scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.44 (+20.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CBSH scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.44 (+20.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$55.90 -
$58.41
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($66.44)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.90 -
$58.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.85
Resistance Level
$57.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.06
Wall Street Target
$66.44
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.89
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$54.51
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$54.13
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$55.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.7%)
$113.44
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 6.7%)
$67.09
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 6.7%)
$57.03
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.09
Bull Case
$67.57
(+22%)
Analyst growth 12.0%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$61.43
(+11%)
Market implied 12.0%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$37.28
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.3
Stabilization Target:
$56.36
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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