CHKP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
$130.55
0.23 (0.18%)
â˛
5d:
-0.89%
30d:
+3.6%
90d:
-0.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 20, 2026 at $131.62 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHKP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHKP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.52
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHKP is currently trading at $130.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.30 to $134.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $126.50, while resistance sits at $135.50.
Market Sentiment: CHKP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.32 (+12.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $126.50, while resistance sits at $135.50.
Market Sentiment: CHKP scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.32 (+12.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$126.30 -
$134.66
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CHKP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($146.32)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.30 -
$134.66
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$6.76
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.50
Resistance Level
$135.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.55
Wall Street Target
$146.32
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.02
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$117.82
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$111.93
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â14)
$130.81
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$288.19
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$165.87
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$140.99
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.75
Bull Case
$166.17
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$151.06
(+16%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$88.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$152.57
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHKP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHKP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHKP price and gamma walls.
