CHKP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
$134.32
2.62 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
-3.28%
30d:
+6.87%
90d:
-0.67%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHKP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHKP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.88
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.53
1.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHKP is currently trading at $134.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.63 to $136.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $126.75, while resistance sits at $142.10.
Market Sentiment: CHKP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $126.75, while resistance sits at $142.10.
Market Sentiment: CHKP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$123.63 -
$136.61
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($147.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$123.63 -
$136.61
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.75
Resistance Level
$142.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.76
Wall Street Target
$147.56
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Profit Margin
38.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.07
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$120.21
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$113.71
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$134.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$326.83
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$176.49
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$150.01
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.72
Bull Case
$170.22
(+27%)
Analyst growth 17.5%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$154.74
(+15%)
Market implied 17.5%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$89.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$158.75
(+18.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHKP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CHKP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CHKP price and gamma walls.
