CHKP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHKP - Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
$123.89
3.59 (2.98%)
▲
5d:
+0.35%
30d:
-5.95%
90d:
-18.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHKP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHKP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.05
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.49
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHKP is currently trading at $123.89, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.76 to $134.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $117.52, while resistance sits at $129.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.32 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHKP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $117.52, while resistance sits at $129.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.32 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$120.76 -
$134.29
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($144.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.76 -
$134.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.52
Resistance Level
$129.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$144.32
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Profit Margin
38.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 14.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.61
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$104.18
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$95.53
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→14)
$124.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$326.83
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 9.5%)
$162.78
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 9.5%)
$138.37
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.72
Bull Case
$155.48
(+26%)
Analyst growth 17.5%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$141.35
(+14%)
Market implied 17.5%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$81.80
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$161.03
(+30.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHKP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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