Is MSFT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MSFT is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: MSFT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of MSFT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MSFT to be between $487.04 and $504.84. The current price is $497.12.

What is the analyst price target for MSFT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MSFT is $572.92. This implies a potential upside of 15.2% from current levels.

Microsoft (MSFT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MSFT - Microsoft Corp

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$497.12

-8.29 (-1.64%) ▼

5d: +0.64%

30d: +0.35%

90d: +24.35%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your MSFT Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $501.38 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 9.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSFT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$715.46

Based on 9.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$444.24

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MSFT is currently trading at $497.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $487.04 to $504.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.6) compared to its historical average (23.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MSFT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $486.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $572.92 (+15.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $487.04 - $504.84

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 71.0%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($572.92)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $487.04 - $504.84

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $486.00

Resistance Level $515.65

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.64

Wall Street Target $572.92 (+15.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 31.7%

Profit Margin 40.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.4% premium

PE vs Historical 25.6 vs 23.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $514.02 (+3%)

2-Year Target $531.50 (+7%)

3-Year Target $549.57 (+11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 26→23) PE COMPRESSION $497.34 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 25.6, Growth: 15.6%) $767.32 (+54%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.6%) $604.30 (+22%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 15.6%) $513.66 (+3%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 28.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.94

Bull Case $600.92 (+21%)

Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 31.0

Base Case $546.29 (+10%)

Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 28.2

Bear Case $343.68 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 15, 2026 6:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

John Fetterman BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

John Fetterman BUY 2026-03-27

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