MSFT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSFT - Microsoft Corp
$496.37
4.66 (0.95%)
â˛
5d:
+2.49%
30d:
+26.19%
90d:
+20.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MSFT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MSFT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$709.29
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$440.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSFT is currently trading at $496.37, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $414.97 to $505.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.6) compared to its historical average (23.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSFT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $501.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $569.45 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSFT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $501.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $569.45 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$414.97 -
$505.81
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($569.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$414.97 -
$505.81
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$477.15
Resistance Level
$501.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.60
Wall Street Target
$569.45
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.7%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$514.74
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$533.78
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$553.53
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â23)
PE COMPRESSION
$497.35
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.6, Growth: 15.6%)
$766.17
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.6%)
$600.71
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 15.6%)
$510.60
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.93
Bull Case
$574.88
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 29.7
Base Case
$522.62
(+6%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$328.60
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 26, 2026 5:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSFT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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BUY
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SELL
2026-03-30
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