CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$118.55
0.28 (0.24%)
▲
5d:
+0.95%
30d:
+2.14%
90d:
+6.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.95
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $118.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.33 to $118.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$114.33 -
$118.89
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($110.77)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.33 -
$118.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.75
Resistance Level
$121.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.65
Wall Street Target
$110.77
(-6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Profit Margin
34.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.70
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$126.99
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$131.44
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$293.40
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 8.3%)
$150.73
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$128.12
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.26
Bull Case
$199.47
(+68%)
Analyst growth 53.3%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$181.34
(+53%)
Market implied 53.3%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$80.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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