CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$115.01
1.86 (1.64%)
▲
5d:
+4.13%
30d:
+0.22%
90d:
-1.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.19
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $115.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.99 to $114.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.99 -
$114.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($120.03)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (43/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.99 -
$114.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.08
Resistance Level
$115.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$120.03
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Profit Margin
33.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$116.39
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$117.79
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$119.20
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$115.63
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.7%)
$282.33
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 7.7%)
$143.61
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 7.7%)
$122.07
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.47
Bull Case
$189.69
(+65%)
Analyst growth 52.4%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$172.44
(+50%)
Market implied 52.4%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$76.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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