CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$117.37
-0.41 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
+1.74%
30d:
+6.56%
90d:
+13.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.66
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $117.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $109.86 to $115.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.6) compared to its historical average (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $114.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $114.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$109.86 -
$115.54
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($109.66)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$109.86 -
$115.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.90
Resistance Level
$114.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.55
Wall Street Target
$109.66
(-6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Profit Margin
34.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.48
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$125.73
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$130.13
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$117.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.1%)
$306.42
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 8.1%)
$148.47
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 8.1%)
$126.20
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.10
Bull Case
$202.95
(+73%)
Analyst growth 56.6%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$184.50
(+57%)
Market implied 56.6%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$80.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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