CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$109.95
-0.23 (-0.21%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.32%
30d:
-2.2%
90d:
-3.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.19
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $109.95, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.86 to $118.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $107.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CM scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $107.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CM scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$112.86 -
$118.21
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (17/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($118.52)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.86 -
$118.21
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$107.66
Resistance Level
$116.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.66
Wall Street Target
$118.52
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Profit Margin
33.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.62
(0%)
2-Year Target
$109.29
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$108.96
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
$110.57
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.7%)
$290.00
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 7.7%)
$137.29
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 7.7%)
$116.70
(+6%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.36
Bull Case
$187.47
(+71%)
Analyst growth 54.7%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$170.43
(+55%)
Market implied 54.7%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$74.92
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$111.57
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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