CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$114.64
0.17 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
-2.98%
30d:
-5.18%
90d:
+2.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CM is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.68
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$91.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $114.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.06 to $120.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$115.06 -
$120.73
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($121.99)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.06 -
$120.73
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.35
Resistance Level
$118.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.07
Wall Street Target
$121.99
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Profit Margin
33.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.90
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$117.18
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$118.46
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$114.11
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.7%)
$286.73
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 7.7%)
$143.15
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 7.7%)
$121.68
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.52
Bull Case
$190.63
(+66%)
Analyst growth 51.4%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$173.30
(+51%)
Market implied 51.4%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$77.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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