CMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMI - Cummins Inc.
$634.20
1.22 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
-4.58%
30d:
-7.05%
90d:
-5.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$994.19
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$617.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMI is currently trading at $634.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $640.54 to $689.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $597.35, while resistance sits at $671.34.
Market Sentiment: CMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $754.86 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $597.35, while resistance sits at $671.34.
Market Sentiment: CMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $754.86 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$640.54 -
$689.31
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($754.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$640.54 -
$689.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$46.23
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$597.35
Resistance Level
$671.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.64
Wall Street Target
$754.86
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$627.86
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$621.58
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$615.36
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
$632.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.7%)
$984.93
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 13.7%)
$933.20
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 13.7%)
$793.22
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.13
Bull Case
$1116.85
(+76%)
Analyst growth 60.4%, PE expands to 34.6
Base Case
$1015.31
(+60%)
Market implied 60.4%, PE stable at 31.4
Bear Case
$430.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$652.24
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amy Rochelle Davis
SELL
4054 shares
2026-03-03
Donald G Jackson
SELL
1600 shares
2026-02-24
Amy Rochelle Davis
SELL
1864 shares
2026-02-23
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Advanced CMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMI price and gamma walls.
