CRTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CRTO - Criteo S.A.
$23.08
0.20 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
+30.91%
90d:
+29.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CRTO is 8.7% above its trading range ($21.23). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CRTO is 8.7% above its trading range ($21.23). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.40
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CRTO is currently trading at $23.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.60 to $21.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (4.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CRTO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CRTO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.60 -
$21.23
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.7% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.8% growth with -5.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.60 -
$21.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.80
Resistance Level
$17.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.06
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.8% premium
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 4.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.66
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$26.59
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$28.66
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.64
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$125.27
(+448%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$29.13
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$23.01
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$50.91
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$46.28
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$15.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 12:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CRTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Der Kooi Frederik Van
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
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