EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.84
-0.33 (-1.06%)
▼
5d:
-0.71%
30d:
-3.93%
90d:
-1.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.46
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.59 to $32.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+20.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+20.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.59 -
$32.44
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($37.06)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.59 -
$32.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.05
Resistance Level
$31.40
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.31
Wall Street Target
$37.06
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.65
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$30.47
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$30.29
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$30.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.2%)
$33.86
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.2%)
$30.47
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 3.2%)
$25.90
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$36.75
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$33.41
(+8%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$21.20
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$31.39
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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