ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$58.73
-0.24 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-2.68%
30d:
+6.24%
90d:
+10.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.81
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.49
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $58.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.11 to $63.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $68.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.52 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $68.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.52 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$54.11 -
$63.79
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.9% below Wall St target ($74.52)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.11 -
$63.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.12
Resistance Level
$68.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.68
Wall Street Target
$74.52
(+26.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.79
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$54.92
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$53.11
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$58.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$87.37
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.2%)
$82.98
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$70.53
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.43
Bull Case
$53.70
(-9%)
Analyst growth -17.2%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$48.81
(-17%)
Market implied -17.2%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$40.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$65.02
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carolyn Herzog
SELL
3989 shares
2026-03-09
Ashutosh Kulkarni
SELL
17756 shares
2026-03-09
Shay Banon
SELL
4283 shares
2026-03-09
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