Elastic (ESTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$87.25
-3.01 (-3.33%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
-8.66%
90d:
+13.08%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
7d
Protect ESTC Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (74%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$89.99 â $101.00
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
30.7x
STRETCHED
vs 25.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$111.74
+28.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$83.59 / $107.48
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ESTC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $88.17 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.59
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $87.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.99 to $101.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.7) compared to its historical average (25.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $83.59, while resistance sits at $107.48. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.74 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $83.59, while resistance sits at $107.48. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.74 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$89.99 -
$101.00
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$89.99 -
$101.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$83.59
Resistance Level
$107.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ESTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($111.74)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.8% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.73
Wall Street Target
$111.74
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.8% premium
PE vs Historical
30.7 vs 25.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.18
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$99.52
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$106.29
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31â25)
PE COMPRESSION
$87.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.7, Growth: 12.2%)
$123.28
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$79.67
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$67.72
(-22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.67
Bull Case
$76.81
(-12%)
Analyst growth -22.6%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$69.83
(-20%)
Market implied -22.6%, PE stable at 24.6
Bear Case
$61.38
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ESTC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate bullish sentiment towards $ESTC as it regains the #1 spot on a leaderboard. No recent news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
Company regaining market position
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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Net
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