ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$86.68
0.65 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
+15.4%
30d:
+39.56%
90d:
+74.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ESTC is 17.2% above its trading range ($73.95). Market expects 10.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ESTC is 17.2% above its trading range ($73.95). Market expects 10.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.39
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $86.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.29 to $73.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.5) compared to its historical average (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ESTC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $74.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ESTC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $74.93. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$58.29 -
$73.95
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
8.6%
Protect Your Profits
ESTC is technically overbought (RSI 85). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+17.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.6% above Wall St target ($74.93)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.29 -
$73.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.47
Resistance Level
$87.61
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.53
Wall Street Target
$74.93
(-13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.2% premium
PE vs Historical
30.5 vs 22.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.52
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$105.26
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$116.00
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$122.47
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$81.16
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$68.98
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 22.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.83
Bull Case
$70.15
(-19%)
Analyst growth -25.9%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$63.78
(-26%)
Market implied -25.9%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$58.50
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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3989 shares
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17756 shares
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4283 shares
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