Elastic (ESTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$92.31
0.61 (0.67%)
â˛
5d:
+1.13%
30d:
-0.09%
90d:
+59.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ESTC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 10.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ESTC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 10.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.83
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $92.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.55 to $93.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.5) compared to its historical average (24.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.69 (+19.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $110.69 (+19.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$83.55 -
$93.13
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ESTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($110.69)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 10.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.55 -
$93.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.62
Resistance Level
$93.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.51
Wall Street Target
$110.69
(+19.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.5% premium
PE vs Historical
32.5 vs 24.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.00
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$112.71
(+22%)
3-Year Target
$124.55
(+35%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33â24)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$130.43
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.2%)
$81.84
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$69.56
(-25%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 26.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.50
Bull Case
$81.83
(-11%)
Analyst growth -18.9%, PE expands to 28.8
Base Case
$74.39
(-19%)
Market implied -18.9%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$62.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ESTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESTC price and gamma walls.
