Elastic (ESTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$98.81
3.18 (3.33%)
▲
5d:
+7.33%
30d:
+10.75%
90d:
+72.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 19, 2026
27d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $91.34 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ESTC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ESTC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$103.34
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $98.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.38 to $95.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.8) compared to its historical average (24.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $101.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ESTC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.52 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $101.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ESTC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.52 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$87.38 -
$95.20
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
30.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ESTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($111.52)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 12.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.38 -
$95.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.82
Resistance Level
$101.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.80
Wall Street Target
$111.52
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.2% premium
PE vs Historical
34.8 vs 24.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.86
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$124.39
(+26%)
3-Year Target
$139.57
(+41%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$99.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$139.61
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$79.67
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$67.72
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 27.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.50
Bull Case
$85.34
(-14%)
Analyst growth -18.9%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$77.58
(-22%)
Market implied -18.9%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$65.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ESTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESTC price and gamma walls.
