ESTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESTC - Elastic N.V.
$62.43
2.19 (3.64%)
▲
5d:
+6.65%
30d:
+2.71%
90d:
+44.18%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ESTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.97
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESTC is currently trading at $62.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.36 to $61.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.0) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $68.72. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ESTC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.26 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESTC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $53.12, while resistance sits at $68.72. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ESTC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.26 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.36 -
$61.95
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($74.26)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.36 -
$61.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.12
Resistance Level
$68.72
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.99
Wall Street Target
$74.26
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.0 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.81
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$61.19
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$60.58
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$62.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.2%)
$88.21
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$87.37
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$74.27
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.43
Bull Case
$54.72
(-9%)
Analyst growth -17.2%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$49.75
(-17%)
Market implied -17.2%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$40.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.0 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$64.45
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carolyn Herzog
SELL
3989 shares
2026-03-09
Ashutosh Kulkarni
SELL
17756 shares
2026-03-09
Shay Banon
SELL
4283 shares
2026-03-09
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ESTC price and gamma walls.
