FERG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
$242.24
2.80 (1.17%)
â˛
5d:
-1.1%
30d:
+5.93%
90d:
+8.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FERG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FERG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$410.96
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$255.18
5.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $242.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.11 to $250.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.9) is in line with its historical norms (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $238.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FERG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.85 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $238.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FERG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.85 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$229.11 -
$250.82
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FERG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($287.85)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$229.11 -
$250.82
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$238.83
Resistance Level
$267.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.87
Wall Street Target
$287.85
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$241.27
(0%)
2-Year Target
$240.31
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$239.34
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â20)
$242.17
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.0%)
$402.24
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$398.13
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$338.41
(+40%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.01
Bull Case
$320.86
(+33%)
Analyst growth 21.8%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$291.69
(+20%)
Market implied 21.8%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$162.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$245.10
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FERG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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