FERG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
$234.33
7.97 (3.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.59%
30d:
+2.24%
90d:
-12.47%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FERG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FERG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$410.96
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$255.18
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $234.33, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $226.59 to $236.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.2) is in line with its historical norms (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $236.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FERG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $279.42 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $236.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FERG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $279.42 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$226.59 -
$236.19
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($279.42)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$226.59 -
$236.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$222.48
Resistance Level
$236.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.22
Wall Street Target
$279.42
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 20.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$230.82
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$227.35
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$223.94
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$234.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.0%)
$415.46
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$385.13
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$327.36
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.16
Bull Case
$298.85
(+28%)
Analyst growth 20.0%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$271.68
(+16%)
Market implied 20.0%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$153.92
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$245.10
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FERG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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