FERG Ferguson Enterprises Inc. WHOLESALE-HARDWARE & PLUMBING & HEATING EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES

Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$259.44
-0.49 (-0.19%) ▼
5d: +7.21% 30d: +17.63% 90d: +5.82%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (20%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$220.10 – $242.34
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.3x FAIR
vs 19.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$283.36
+9.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$227.21 / $265.29
Trend: Strong Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FERG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$404.83
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$251.37
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $259.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $220.10 to $242.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $265.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: FERG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $220.10 - $242.34
Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 20.0%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $220.10 - $242.34
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $227.21
Resistance Level $265.29
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.1% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($283.36)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.28
Wall Street Target $283.36 (+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.9%
Profit Margin 6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.5% premium
PE vs Historical 21.3 vs 19.8 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $265.93 (+3%)
2-Year Target $272.57 (+5%)
3-Year Target $279.39 (+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→20) PE COMPRESSION $260.01 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.3, Growth: 18.0%) $426.40 (+64%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.0%) $398.03 (+53%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 18.0%) $338.32 (+30%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.30
Bull Case $308.55 (+19%)
Analyst growth 7.9%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case $280.50 (+8%)
Market implied 7.9%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case $176.75 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FERG)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Investor $Bullish1 expresses optimism about $FERG following QXO's latest report.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 7:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Part A: Deep-Dive FERG Research Pages
FERG Technical Chart FERG Price Prediction FERG Intrinsic Value DCF FERG Earnings Date FERG Investment Advisor FERG Fair Price Analyzer FERG Options Chain FERG Options Advisor FERG Options Analysis FERG Competitors
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