Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
$221.49
-1.13 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
+1.18%
90d:
-3.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$406.87
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$252.64
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $221.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $217.33 to $229.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $212.13, while resistance sits at $228.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.48 (+29.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $212.13, while resistance sits at $228.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $287.48 (+29.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$217.33 -
$229.32
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FERG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.8% below Wall St target ($287.48)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$217.33 -
$229.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$212.13
Resistance Level
$228.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.16
Wall Street Target
$287.48
(+29.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 19.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$214.85
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$208.40
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$202.15
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$221.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$408.85
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 18.0%)
$364.03
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$309.42
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.16
Bull Case
$293.91
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$267.19
(+21%)
Market implied 20.0%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$151.38
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$242.66
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FERG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FERG price and gamma walls.
