FERG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FERG - Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
$233.19
5.73 (2.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+3.84%
90d:
-9.13%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FERG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$413.01
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$256.44
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FERG is currently trading at $233.19, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $226.27 to $237.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $235.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FERG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $282.19 (+21.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FERG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $235.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FERG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $282.19 (+21.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$226.27 -
$237.00
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FERG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($282.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$226.27 -
$237.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.82
Resistance Level
$235.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.12
Wall Street Target
$282.19
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 20.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.99
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$224.87
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$220.82
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→20)
$233.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$436.51
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 18.0%)
$383.26
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$325.77
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.17
Bull Case
$300.01
(+29%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$272.73
(+17%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$154.67
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.1 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$246.32
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FERG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-21
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