FMNB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMNB - Farmers National Banc Corp
$15.69
-0.03 (-0.19%)
▼
5d:
-3.8%
30d:
+5.87%
90d:
+10.18%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMNB is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMNB is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.33
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMNB is currently trading at $15.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.09 to $16.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.09 -
$16.16
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (44/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.09 -
$16.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.49
Resistance Level
$16.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.91
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.35
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$17.04
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$17.75
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$40.85
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$18.15
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.0%)
$15.42
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$20.56
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$18.69
(+19%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$10.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 2:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMNB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gina A Richardson
BUY
441 shares
2026-03-19
Gina A Richardson
BUY
1231 shares
2026-03-05
Edward Muransky
BUY
40000 shares
2026-03-03
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