Farmers National Banc (FMNB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.46
-0.02 (-0.13%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
+3.55%
90d:
-5.21%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (73%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$15.16 â $15.67
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.7x
FAIR
vs 8.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$17.50
+13.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.32 / $16.26
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FMNB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.48
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMNB is currently trading at $15.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.16 to $15.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.50 (+13.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.50 (+13.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.16 -
$15.67
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$15.16 -
$15.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$15.32
Resistance Level
$16.26
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.4% growth with 36.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.70
Wall Street Target
$17.50
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.4%
Profit Margin
29.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.83
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$16.21
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$16.60
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.5%)
$36.93
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 1.5%)
$16.18
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 1.5%)
$13.75
(-11%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.39
Bull Case
$21.91
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.8%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$19.91
(+29%)
Market implied 27.8%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$10.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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