Farmers National Banc (FMNB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMNB - Farmers National Banc Corp
$15.69
0.03 (0.19%)
▲
5d:
+2.55%
30d:
+2.28%
90d:
+2.21%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMNB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMNB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.77
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMNB is currently trading at $15.69, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.07 to $15.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMNB scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FMNB scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$15.07 -
$15.58
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.07 -
$15.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.78
Resistance Level
$15.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.90
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.19
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$16.74
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$17.31
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.76
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$40.43
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$18.11
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.0%)
$15.40
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$20.03
(+28%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$18.21
(+16%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$10.41
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMNB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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