Farmers National Banc (FMNB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMNB - Farmers National Banc Corp
$15.74
-0.14 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
-2.54%
90d:
+8.1%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMNB is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMNB is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.55
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMNB is currently trading at $15.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.60 to $16.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMNB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.60 -
$16.06
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (52/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.60 -
$16.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.31
Resistance Level
$16.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.94
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
56.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.37
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$17.02
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$17.71
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.84
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.0%)
$41.06
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.0%)
$18.20
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.0%)
$15.47
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.49
Bull Case
$20.63
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$18.76
(+19%)
Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$10.80
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMNB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gina A Richardson
BUY
441 shares
2026-03-19
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