GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$49.88
-0.28 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
+4.04%
90d:
-4.4%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 01, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.06
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $49.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.99 to $49.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GBX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $44.67. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GBX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $44.67. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$46.99 -
$49.19
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.0% above Wall St target ($44.67)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with -22.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.99 -
$49.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.61
Resistance Level
$49.02
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.33
Wall Street Target
$44.67
(-11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-69.9%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.41
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$52.70
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$54.02
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.93
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.1%)
$190.59
(+280%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 29.1%)
$107.93
(+115%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 29.1%)
$91.74
(+83%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.69
Bull Case
$47.88
(-5%)
Analyst growth -13.3%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$43.53
(-13%)
Market implied -13.3%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$34.14
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William J Krueger
SELL
6000 shares
2026-01-30
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