Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CP - Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
$85.94
1.47 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
-1.12%
30d:
-4.02%
90d:
-2.34%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.54
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.65
0.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CP is currently trading at $85.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.55 to $92.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CP scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.58 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CP scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.58 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$86.55 -
$92.34
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($98.58)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.55 -
$92.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.59
Resistance Level
$89.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.08
Wall Street Target
$98.58
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.71
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$82.96
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$82.21
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$84.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.0%)
$190.84
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 16.0%)
$131.75
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 16.0%)
$111.99
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.99
Bull Case
$187.22
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$170.20
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$57.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$86.97
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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