The Greenbrier Companies (GBX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$37.90
-0.88 (-2.27%)
▼
5d:
-3.09%
30d:
-11.2%
90d:
-24.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GBX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GBX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.10
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.63
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $37.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.63 to $42.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBX scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBX scores 82/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.63 -
$42.25
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (82/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 82/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.63 -
$42.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.02
Resistance Level
$40.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.62
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.73
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$36.71
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$35.72
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$38.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$128.40
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 21.0%)
$68.69
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 21.0%)
$58.39
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.38
Bull Case
$44.77
(+15%)
Analyst growth 8.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$40.70
(+5%)
Market implied 8.0%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$25.63
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$41.98
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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