GBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GBX - The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.
$46.05
0.24 (0.52%)
▲
5d:
+1.34%
30d:
-10.65%
90d:
-5.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GBX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.17
16.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GBX is currently trading at $46.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.13 to $50.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBX scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GBX is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GBX scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.13 -
$50.82
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -31.6% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.13 -
$50.82
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.67
Resistance Level
$47.03
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.81
Wall Street Target
$45.33
(-1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-67.7%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.23
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$46.42
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$46.60
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$46.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 28.6%)
$166.36
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 28.6%)
$97.88
(+113%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 28.6%)
$83.19
(+81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.40
Bull Case
$57.80
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$52.55
(+14%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$31.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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