Union Pacific (UNP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$278.28
5.86 (2.15%)
▲
5d:
+1.64%
30d:
-3.95%
90d:
-1.53%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UNP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UNP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$372.34
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$231.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $278.28, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $273.63 to $298.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $279.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $329.42 (+18.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $279.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $329.42 (+18.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$273.63 -
$298.69
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UNP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($329.42)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$273.63 -
$298.69
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$268.26
Resistance Level
$279.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.61
Wall Street Target
$329.42
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$279.67
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$281.07
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$282.48
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$277.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$371.87
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$357.51
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$303.88
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.37
Bull Case
$343.73
(+24%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$312.48
(+12%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$185.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UNP price and gamma walls.
