Union Pacific (UNP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$284.40
-1.38 (-0.48%)
▼
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
-3.18%
90d:
+6.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $289.62 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UNP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$368.86
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$229.03
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $284.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $288.81 to $304.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $282.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UNP scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $329.25 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $282.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UNP scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $329.25 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$288.81 -
$304.48
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UNP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($329.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$288.81 -
$304.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$282.98
Resistance Level
$308.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.09
Wall Street Target
$329.25
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$288.10
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$291.84
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$295.64
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$283.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.4%)
$364.13
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$362.72
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$308.31
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.40
Bull Case
$358.85
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$326.23
(+15%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$194.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric J Gehringer
SELL
1999 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced UNP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UNP price and gamma walls.
