UNP
Union Pacific Corp.
RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING
Union Pacific (UNP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$304.20
+2.09 (+0.69%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
+6.2%
90d:
+3.58%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (58%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$282.40 – $302.29
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.1x
FAIR
vs 19.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$329.96
+8.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$289.41 / $309.86
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UNP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$386.98
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$240.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $304.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $282.40 to $302.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $309.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $309.86. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNP scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$282.40 -
$302.29
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$282.40 -
$302.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$289.41
Resistance Level
$309.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($329.96)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.13
Wall Street Target
$329.96
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Profit Margin
28.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$312.72
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$321.47
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$330.47
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$304.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.1, Growth: 9.3%)
$397.25
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$373.31
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$317.31
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.88
Bull Case
$371.39
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$337.62
(+11%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$205.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UNP)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Union Pacific, CSX, and Norfolk Southern are highlighted in Zacks Industry Outlook for their solid financial strength and investor-friendly initiatives in the Railroad industry, which faces challenges such as economic uncertainties, inflation, high interest rates, and supply-chain disruptions.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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