UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$262.13
-2.55 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-6.18%
30d:
-0.49%
90d:
-1.71%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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1 traders called UNP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UNP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UNP is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$348.77
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$216.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $262.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $263.14 to $270.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $258.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.05 (+11.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $258.66. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.05 (+11.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$263.14 -
$270.94
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($291.05)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$263.14 -
$270.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$258.66
Resistance Level
$279.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.15
Wall Street Target
$291.05
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$264.49
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$266.87
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$269.27
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$262.89
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.8%)
$386.70
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 8.8%)
$338.05
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 8.8%)
$287.34
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.52
Bull Case
$335.94
(+26%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$305.40
(+14%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$189.99
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric J Gehringer
SELL
1999 shares
2026-03-20
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