GENI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GENI - Genius Sports Limited
$6.50
-0.12 (-1.74%)
▼
5d:
+0.39%
30d:
-7.61%
90d:
+56.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GENI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 28.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GENI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 28.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.58
69.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $6.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.96 to $6.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 28.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.01, while resistance sits at $6.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+54.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.01, while resistance sits at $6.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+54.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.96 -
$6.74
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.2% below Wall St target ($10.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.96 -
$6.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.01
Resistance Level
$6.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.81
Wall Street Target
$10.19
(+54.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Profit Margin
-22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-28.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 18.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-28.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.95
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.82
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→18)
$13.01
(+97%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 86.5%)
$71.30
(+979%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 86.5%)
$22.31
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 86.5%)
$18.96
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$17.85
(+170.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+170.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GENI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GENI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.
