Is GENI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, GENI is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GENI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of GENI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for GENI to be between $6.60 and $7.91. The current price is $8.06.

What is the analyst price target for GENI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for GENI is $10.93. This implies a potential upside of 35.5% from current levels.

GENI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

GENI - Genius Sports Limited

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation

$8.06

0.13 (1.64%) ▲

5d: -3.82%

30d: +25.35%

90d: +64.83%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your GENI Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 06, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $7.80 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 7.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GENI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$34.59

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$21.48

62.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $8.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.60 to $7.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 23.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.38, while resistance sits at $8.43.

Market Sentiment: GENI scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.93 (+35.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $6.60 - $7.91

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 28.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 35.5% below Wall St target ($10.93)
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $6.60 - $7.91

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $7.39

Resistance Level $8.43

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.53

Wall Street Target $10.93 (+35.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 64.7%

Profit Margin -23.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -23.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 7.5 vs 16.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -23.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $7.25 (-10%)

2-Year Target $6.53 (-19%)

3-Year Target $5.88 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→17) $12.95 (+61%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 72.6%) $72.48 (+799%)

Base: (SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 72.6%) $27.20 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 6.4, Growth: 72.6%) $23.12 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 16.6

Stabilization Target: $17.76 (+120.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +120.4%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM

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Advanced GENI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.

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More Analysis for GENI

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Genius Sports Limited

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation

About

Genius Sports Ltd is a B2B provider of scalable, technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. Its services are organized into three key product areas including Sports Technology and Services; Betting Technology, Content and Services; and Media Technology, Content and Services. All of its products are powered by proprietary technology and robust data infrastructure. It generates maximum revenue from the Betting Technology, Content and Services division. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from Europe.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $2,880,369,938

Employees: 2,400

Listed Since: 2021-04-21

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001834489

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