Genius Sports (GENI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

GENI - Genius Sports Limited

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation
$6.82
0.10 (1.49%) β–²
5d: -10.62%
30d: -10.85%
90d: -2.99%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 8, 2026 at $7.32 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 9.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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πŸ’‘
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GENI is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction β†’

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.13
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.57
66.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $6.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.24 to $8.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 26.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: GENI scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.03 (+61.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $7.24 - $8.05
Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 61.7% below Wall St target ($11.03)
  • WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile β€” this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $7.24 - $8.05
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $6.70
Resistance Level $8.41
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 6.37
Wall Street Target $11.03 (+61.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 64.7%
Profit Margin -23.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -26.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 6.4 vs 15.9 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -26.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $6.14 (-10%)
2-Year Target $5.52 (-19%)
3-Year Target $4.97 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6β†’16) $12.40 (+82%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 72.6%) $72.84 (+968%)
Base: (SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 72.6%) $23.02 (+238%)
Bear: (PE: 5.4, Growth: 72.6%) $19.56 (+187%)
πŸ’‘ Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 15.9
Stabilization Target: $17.01 (+149.5%)
PE Expansion Potential: +149.5%
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 PM
πŸ”₯ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced GENI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.

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