Is GENI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, GENI is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: GENI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of GENI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for GENI to be between $6.01 and $7.55. The current price is $6.02.

What is the analyst price target for GENI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for GENI is $10.88. This implies a potential upside of 80.7% from current levels.

Genius Sports (GENI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

GENI - Genius Sports Limited

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation

$6.02

0.34 (5.99%) ▲

5d: -6.52%

30d: -18.87%

90d: -9.06%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your GENI Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 30d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 2, 2026 at $6.02 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 7.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GENI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$31.67

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$19.67

69.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $6.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.01 to $7.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 28.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.41, while resistance sits at $6.57. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.

Market Sentiment: GENI scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.88 (+80.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $6.01 - $7.55

Company Quality Score 70/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 95.2%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.0%)
BULLISH: Trading 80.7% below Wall St target ($10.88)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 35% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.5%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $6.01 - $7.55

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $5.41

Resistance Level $6.57

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.63

Wall Street Target $10.88 (+80.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 64.7%

Profit Margin -23.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -28.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 5.6 vs 15.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -28.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $5.42 (-10%)

2-Year Target $4.88 (-19%)

3-Year Target $4.39 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→15) $11.86 (+97%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 72.6%) $73.67 (+1124%)

Base: (SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 72.6%) $20.32 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 4.8, Growth: 72.6%) $17.27 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 15.2

Stabilization Target: $16.26 (+170.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +170.2%

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Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced GENI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for GENI

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Genius Sports Limited

Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation

About

Genius Sports Ltd is a B2B provider of scalable, technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. Its services are organized into three key product areas including Sports Technology and Services; Betting Technology, Content and Services; and Media Technology, Content and Services. All of its products are powered by proprietary technology and robust data infrastructure. It generates maximum revenue from the Betting Technology, Content and Services division. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from Europe.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $2,880,369,938

Employees: 2,400

Listed Since: 2021-04-21

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001834489

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