GENI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GENI - Genius Sports Limited
$5.86
-0.08 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
-14.7%
30d:
+19.84%
90d:
+24.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GENI is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GENI is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.87
74.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $5.86, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.22 to $6.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 32.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+74.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.19 (+74.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$5.22 -
$6.63
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GENI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.0% below Wall St target ($10.19)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.22 -
$6.63
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.91
Resistance Level
$7.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.04
Wall Street Target
$10.19
(+74.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Profit Margin
-22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-32.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 19.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-32.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.75
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.27
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→20)
$13.79
(+135%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 86.5%)
$71.30
(+1117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 86.5%)
$19.78
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 86.5%)
$16.81
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$18.92
(+222.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+222.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GENI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GENI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.
