GENI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GENI - Genius Sports Limited
$6.97
0.04 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
-4.13%
30d:
+8.4%
90d:
+60.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GENI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GENI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 25.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.41
65.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GENI is currently trading at $6.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.12 to $6.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 25.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.17, while resistance sits at $7.55.
Market Sentiment: GENI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.15 (+46.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GENI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.17, while resistance sits at $7.55.
Market Sentiment: GENI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.15 (+46.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.12 -
$6.93
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.5% below Wall St target ($10.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.12 -
$6.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.17
Resistance Level
$7.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.14
Wall Street Target
$10.15
(+46.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Profit Margin
-22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-25.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 17.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-25.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.24
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→17)
$12.30
(+78%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 86.5%)
$67.86
(+879%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 86.5%)
$23.39
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 86.5%)
$19.88
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 17.4
Stabilization Target:
$16.88
(+143.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+143.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GENI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GENI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GENI price and gamma walls.
