GNW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.
$9.89
0.01 (0.10%)
â˛
5d:
-1.98%
30d:
-0.3%
90d:
+9.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GNW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -22.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GNW is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -22.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.75
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.47
46.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GNW is currently trading at $9.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.80 to $10.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 22.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GNW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GNW scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.80 -
$10.07
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($12.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.80 -
$10.07
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.71
Resistance Level
$10.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.99
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-22.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-22.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.01
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.21
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â19)
$15.48
(+57%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 0.0%)
$22.06
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 0.0%)
$9.89
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.41
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$21.74
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$19.76
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$6.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$21.23
(+114.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+114.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 9:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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