GPRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPRE - Green Plains, Inc.
$16.85
-0.43 (-2.49%)
▼
5d:
-0.59%
30d:
+6.24%
90d:
-3.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 29.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GPRE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 29.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.81
Based on -7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $16.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.32 to $17.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (33.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 29.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.22, while resistance sits at $19.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.22, while resistance sits at $19.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.32 -
$17.46
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.71)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.32 -
$17.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.22
Resistance Level
$19.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.82
Wall Street Target
$17.71
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.5%
Profit Margin
-0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-29.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 33.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-29.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.17
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.28
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→33)
$34.62
(+105%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -18.8%)
$21.55
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -18.8%)
$12.28
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -18.8%)
$10.44
(-38%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 33.3
Stabilization Target:
$47.49
(+181.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+181.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GPRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPRE price and gamma walls.
