Green Plains (GPRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$13.71
-0.26 (-1.86%)
▼
5d:
-2.56%
30d:
-6.1%
90d:
-9.27%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
69/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$13.66 – $14.89
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.9x
CHEAP
vs 26.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.50
+34.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$13.03 / $14.36
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GPRE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -35.9% annual earnings decline despite 510% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 29, 2026 at $13.62 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.87
Based on -9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.93
23.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $13.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.66 to $14.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 35.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 510.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.03, while resistance sits at $14.36.
Market Sentiment: GPRE scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.03, while resistance sits at $14.36.
Market Sentiment: GPRE scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.66 -
$14.89
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$13.66 -
$14.89
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$13.03
Resistance Level
$14.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.9% below Wall St target ($18.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.86
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+34.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
510.0%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-35.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-35.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.11
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→26)
$37.87
(+176%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -23.7%)
$28.93
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: -23.7%)
$9.99
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: -23.7%)
$8.50
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.60
Bull Case
$11.81
(-14%)
Analyst growth -23.2%, PE expands to 5.9
Base Case
$10.74
(-22%)
Market implied -23.2%, PE stable at 5.4
Bear Case
$9.50
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$51.95
(+278.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+278.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GPRE)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment prevails on StockTwits regarding $GPRE, with one user suggesting selling the stock due to its unprofitability. No recent news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
Unprofitability of $GPRE
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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