Green Plains (GPRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPRE - Green Plains, Inc.
$14.16
-0.03 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
-5.09%
30d:
-6.04%
90d:
-17.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.75
Based on -10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $14.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.59 to $15.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 31.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+30.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+30.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.59 -
$15.25
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GPRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.6% below Wall St target ($18.50)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.59 -
$15.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.91
Resistance Level
$15.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.80
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+30.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.5%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-31.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 27.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-31.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.47
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.32
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→27)
$31.78
(+124%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -24.4%)
$23.29
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: -24.4%)
$10.32
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -24.4%)
$8.77
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$15.59
(+10%)
Analyst growth -0.1%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$14.18
(+0%)
Market implied -0.1%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$9.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$43.59
(+207.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+207.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GPRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPRE price and gamma walls.
