GPRE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPRE - Green Plains, Inc.
$16.25
0.23 (1.44%)
â˛
5d:
+4.23%
30d:
-5.52%
90d:
+7.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GPRE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -30.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GPRE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -30.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.55
Based on -9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $16.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.53 to $17.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (31.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 30.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.53 -
$17.41
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GPRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.53 -
$17.41
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$1.45
(8.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.72
Resistance Level
$16.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.40
Wall Street Target
$17.86
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.5%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-30.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 31.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-30.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.85
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â31)
$35.77
(+120%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -22.3%)
$22.86
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -22.3%)
$11.85
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -22.3%)
$10.07
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$16.49
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.4%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$14.99
(-8%)
Market implied -6.4%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$10.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 31.4
Stabilization Target:
$49.06
(+201.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+201.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GPRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPRE price and gamma walls.
