Green Plains (GPRE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPRE - Green Plains, Inc.
$14.93
-0.13 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-0.53%
30d:
+1.22%
90d:
-3.74%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPRE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.74
Based on -7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.22
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPRE is currently trading at $14.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.62 to $15.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (28.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 32.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GPRE scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+27.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPRE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GPRE scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.00 (+27.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.62 -
$15.30
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GPRE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.3% below Wall St target ($19.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.62 -
$15.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.25
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.54
Resistance Level
$15.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.76
Wall Street Target
$19.00
(+27.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.5%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-32.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 28.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-32.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.44
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.09
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.88
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→28)
$35.30
(+136%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -19.7%)
$25.35
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: -19.7%)
$10.88
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -19.7%)
$9.25
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$16.91
(+13%)
Analyst growth 2.1%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$15.37
(+3%)
Market implied 2.1%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$10.24
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 28.4
Stabilization Target:
$48.42
(+224.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+224.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPRE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced GPRE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPRE price and gamma walls.
