GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$72.52
1.82 (2.57%)
▲
5d:
+9.4%
30d:
+34.55%
90d:
+70.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GSHD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GSHD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $72.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.06 to $69.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.8) compared to its historical average (21.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $72.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$57.06 -
$69.11
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($68.92)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 7.0% growth expectation is conservative given 122% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.06 -
$69.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.04
Resistance Level
$72.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.83
Wall Street Target
$68.92
(-5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
26.8 vs 21.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.60
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$83.03
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$88.84
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.8, Growth: 25.8%)
$144.25
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 25.8%)
$107.89
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 25.8%)
$91.70
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 31.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.27
Bull Case
$87.57
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case
$72.52
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$55.48
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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