Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$45.51
-1.64 (-3.48%)
▼
5d:
+0.62%
30d:
-33.85%
90d:
-14.13%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.06
36.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $45.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.98 to $67.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (21.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 122.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.05, while resistance sits at $54.63. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.25 (+47.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.05, while resistance sits at $54.63. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.25 (+47.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.98 -
$67.00
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 47.8% below Wall St target ($67.25)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 46% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.98 -
$67.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.05
Resistance Level
$54.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.96
Wall Street Target
$67.25
(+47.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 21.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.82
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$38.44
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$35.32
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→22)
$45.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 25.8%)
$108.96
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 25.8%)
$90.59
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 25.8%)
$77.00
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$101.59
(+123%)
Analyst growth 95.9%, PE expands to 37.9
Base Case
$92.35
(+103%)
Market implied 95.9%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$32.06
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 21.9
Stabilization Target:
$58.77
(+29.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 5:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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