Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$57.18
0.74 (1.31%)
▲
5d:
-14.76%
30d:
-12.77%
90d:
+54.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GSHD is down 14.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GSHD is down 14.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.16
20.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $57.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.26 to $71.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.2) is in line with its historical norms (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 122.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.66, while resistance sits at $72.80.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.92 (+20.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $54.66, while resistance sits at $72.80.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.92 (+20.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$62.26 -
$71.03
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($68.92)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.26 -
$71.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.66
Resistance Level
$72.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.18
Wall Street Target
$68.92
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 22.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.32
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$55.48
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$54.65
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→22)
$57.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.2, Growth: 25.7%)
$113.57
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 25.7%)
$108.17
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 25.7%)
$91.95
(+61%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$122.36
(+114%)
Analyst growth 97.1%, PE expands to 45.3
Base Case
$111.24
(+95%)
Market implied 97.1%, PE stable at 41.2
Bear Case
$38.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 22.1
Stabilization Target:
$59.67
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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