GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
INSURANCE AGENTS, BROKERS & SERVICE
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Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$46.15
+0.02 (+0.04%)
▲
5d:
-18.1%
30d:
+3.85%
90d:
-31.53%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$43.85 – $51.74
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.7x
CHEAP
vs 21.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$62.75
+36.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$44.33 / $59.77
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: GSHD is down 18.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.30
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.24
31.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $46.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.85 to $51.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.6) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 122.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.33, while resistance sits at $59.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.75 (+36.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.33, while resistance sits at $59.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.75 (+36.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$43.85 -
$51.74
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$43.85 -
$51.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$44.33
Resistance Level
$59.77
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.0% below Wall St target ($62.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.65
Wall Street Target
$62.75
(+36.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 21.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.24
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$40.52
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$37.97
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$46.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.7%)
$100.61
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 24.7%)
$89.40
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 24.7%)
$75.99
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$96.86
(+110%)
Analyst growth 90.9%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$88.05
(+91%)
Market implied 90.9%, PE stable at 33.7
Bear Case
$31.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.6 to 21.4
Stabilization Target:
$55.96
(+21.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (GSHD)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) is a top small-cap financial stock with significant upside potential, according to analysts at UBS and Piper Sandler. The stock has a 1-year median target price of $64, offering over 80% upside.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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