GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$34.37
-1.73 (-4.79%)
▼
5d:
-8.78%
30d:
-21.15%
90d:
-32.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GSHD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.50
Based on 14.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.44
54.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $34.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.71 to $44.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 111.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.67 (+94.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.67 (+94.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.71 -
$44.54
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 94.0% below Wall St target ($66.67)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.71 -
$44.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.68
Resistance Level
$44.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.56
Wall Street Target
$66.67
(+94.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.9%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 23.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.93
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.84
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→23)
$45.87
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 24.6%)
$116.01
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 24.6%)
$66.53
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 24.6%)
$56.55
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$82.90
(+135%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 38.7
Base Case
$75.36
(+114%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.2
Bear Case
$25.62
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$62.92
(+83.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+83.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
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