GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$54.87
1.33 (2.48%)
▲
5d:
+3.53%
30d:
+42.08%
90d:
+35.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: GSHD is 10.8% above its trading range ($49.51). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: GSHD is 10.8% above its trading range ($49.51). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.17
24.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $54.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.17 to $49.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.9) is in line with its historical norms (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 111.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.17 (+20.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.17 (+20.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$35.17 -
$49.51
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.6% below Wall St target ($66.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.17 -
$49.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.68
Resistance Level
$41.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.95
Wall Street Target
$66.17
(+20.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.9%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 21.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.33
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$51.84
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$50.39
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→22)
$54.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.8%)
$122.07
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.8%)
$111.82
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 26.8%)
$95.04
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$117.79
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.7
Base Case
$107.08
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.0
Bear Case
$36.41
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$59.68
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 3:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
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