Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$50.62
5.30 (11.69%)
â˛
5d:
+11.01%
30d:
+16.31%
90d:
-13.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GSHD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GSHD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.78
26.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $50.62, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.69 to $52.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 122.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.08 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.08 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$42.69 -
$52.18
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+11.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($62.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.69 -
$52.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.89
Resistance Level
$50.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.22
Wall Street Target
$62.08
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 21.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.70
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$46.85
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$45.07
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19â22)
$50.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.5%)
$103.49
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 25.5%)
$100.16
(+98%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 25.5%)
$85.13
(+68%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.08 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$95.83
(+89%)
Analyst growth 92.2%, PE expands to 36.4
Base Case
$87.12
(+72%)
Market implied 92.2%, PE stable at 33.1
Bear Case
$30.82
(-39%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$56.89
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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