GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$65.66
3.66 (5.90%)
▲
5d:
+5.9%
30d:
+24.61%
90d:
+50.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GSHD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GSHD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.91
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $65.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $49.03 to $61.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.9) is in line with its historical norms (21.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.19, while resistance sits at $70.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.92 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.19, while resistance sits at $70.88. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $68.92 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$49.03 -
$61.85
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($68.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$49.03 -
$61.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.19
Resistance Level
$70.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.94
Wall Street Target
$68.92
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.2%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 21.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.18
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$64.38
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$65.60
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.05
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 25.8%)
$123.32
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 25.8%)
$111.43
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 25.8%)
$94.72
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.37
Bull Case
$138.57
(+124%)
Analyst growth 97.3%, PE expands to 51.3
Base Case
$125.97
(+103%)
Market implied 97.3%, PE stable at 46.6
Bear Case
$43.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
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