GSHD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GSHD - Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$40.06
1.05 (2.69%)
▲
5d:
+11.12%
30d:
-5.72%
90d:
-9.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GSHD appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.2% annual earnings decline despite 112% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GSHD appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -13.2% annual earnings decline despite 112% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.07
45.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GSHD is currently trading at $40.06, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.47 to $40.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 111.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.68, while resistance sits at $41.80.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.17 (+62.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GSHD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.68, while resistance sits at $41.80.
Market Sentiment: GSHD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.17 (+62.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$35.47 -
$40.27
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.7% below Wall St target ($65.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.47 -
$40.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.68
Resistance Level
$41.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.45
Wall Street Target
$65.17
(+62.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.9%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 22.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.05
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.45
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.20
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→22)
$44.65
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.1%)
$121.03
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 26.1%)
$80.32
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 26.1%)
$68.27
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$85.82
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.6
Base Case
$78.02
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.2
Bear Case
$26.53
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 22.1
Stabilization Target:
$61.25
(+52.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GSHD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Louis Goldberg
BUY
5575 shares
2026-02-20
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