Aon (AON) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AON - Aon plc Class A
$304.76
10.41 (3.54%)
▲
5d:
+6.26%
30d:
+8.22%
90d:
-15.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AON shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$439.04
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$272.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AON is currently trading at $304.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $272.21 to $295.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $298.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AON scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $354.21 (+20.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AON is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $298.55. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AON scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $354.21 (+20.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$272.21 -
$295.77
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AON? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($354.21)
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$272.21 -
$295.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$270.03
Resistance Level
$298.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.56
Wall Street Target
$354.21
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$286.11
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$278.10
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$270.31
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$295.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$517.88
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 8.9%)
$379.71
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 8.9%)
$322.75
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.14
Bull Case
$363.71
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$330.64
(+12%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$201.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$321.41
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AON showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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