AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$249.42
-7.04 (-2.75%)
▼
5d:
+0.67%
30d:
+4.07%
90d:
+20.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AJG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AJG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$354.53
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$220.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $249.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.83 to $260.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $240.98, while resistance sits at $269.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $281.39 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $240.98, while resistance sits at $269.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $281.39 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$229.83 -
$260.28
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($281.39)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$229.83 -
$260.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$240.98
Resistance Level
$269.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.78
Wall Street Target
$281.39
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$253.66
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$257.97
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$262.36
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$250.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$441.39
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 12.7%)
$357.18
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$303.60
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.18
Bull Case
$564.21
(+126%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$512.92
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$174.39
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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