AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
INSURANCE AGENTS, BROKERS & SERVICE
Best Insurance Brokers Stocks 2026 →
Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$282.01
-0.64 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
-2.21%
30d:
+21.09%
90d:
+11.25%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (23%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$239.17 – $279.09
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.0x
STRETCHED
vs 16.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$300.11
+6.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$262.53 / $294.53
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AJG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$363.00
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$225.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $282.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $239.17 to $279.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $262.53, while resistance sits at $294.53.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $262.53, while resistance sits at $294.53.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$239.17 -
$279.09
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$239.17 -
$279.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$262.53
Resistance Level
$294.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($300.11)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.04
Wall Street Target
$300.11
(+6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.0%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 16.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$297.24
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$313.29
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$330.21
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$282.64
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$425.65
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.1%)
$408.14
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 13.1%)
$346.92
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.55
Bull Case
$621.83
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.5
Base Case
$565.30
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.2
Bear Case
$192.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AJG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 1, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) reported 18% total revenue growth in Q3 2026, driven by organic expansion and acquisition activity. Management aims to achieve substantial synergies from the AssuredPartners acquisition and maintains an active M&A pipeline.
Key Retail Themes:
Revenue growth through organic expansion and acquisitions
Active M&A pipeline and substantial synergies
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 5:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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