AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$215.78
6.70 (3.20%)
▲
5d:
+0.02%
30d:
+4.04%
90d:
-0.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AJG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$349.41
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$216.96
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $215.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.33 to $216.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $208.08, while resistance sits at $225.34. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $264.74 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $208.08, while resistance sits at $225.34. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AJG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $264.74 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$203.33 -
$216.24
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($264.74)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.33 -
$216.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$208.08
Resistance Level
$225.34
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.51
Wall Street Target
$264.74
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 15.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$209.52
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$203.45
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$197.55
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$215.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$463.02
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 12.6%)
$308.43
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 12.6%)
$262.17
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case
$459.98
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.2
Base Case
$418.16
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.8
Bear Case
$142.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.8
Stabilization Target:
$234.99
(+8.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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