AJG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$263.81
4.20 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+5.02%
30d:
+8.92%
90d:
+27.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AJG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AJG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$357.34
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$221.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $263.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $246.74 to $258.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $264.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.56 (+10.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $264.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.56 (+10.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$246.74 -
$258.55
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AJG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($291.56)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with 30.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$246.74 -
$258.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$245.33
Resistance Level
$264.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.72
Wall Street Target
$291.56
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$272.78
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$282.05
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$291.64
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$263.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$430.80
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$380.42
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$323.36
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.07
Bull Case
$571.14
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.1
Base Case
$519.22
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.8
Bear Case
$176.53
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 2:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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