Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$270.98
12.61 (4.88%)
▲
5d:
+8.35%
30d:
+18.0%
90d:
+9.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AJG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AJG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$357.68
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$222.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $270.98, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $226.91 to $250.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $271.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $271.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$226.91 -
$250.72
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
AJG is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($283.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with 30.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$226.91 -
$250.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$231.50
Resistance Level
$271.01
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.30
Wall Street Target
$283.33
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$282.63
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$294.79
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$307.46
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$270.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.0%)
$424.65
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 13.0%)
$391.33
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$332.63
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.01
Bull Case
$568.41
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.3
Base Case
$516.74
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.0
Bear Case
$175.69
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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