Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AJG - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$240.32
-2.99 (-1.23%)
âŧ
5d:
-9.88%
30d:
-5.93%
90d:
+8.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $262.69 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AJG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AJG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$359.71
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$223.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AJG is currently trading at $240.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $249.82 to $264.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $240.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.56 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AJG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $240.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AJG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $291.56 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$249.82 -
$264.48
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AJG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($291.56)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$249.82 -
$264.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$240.32
Resistance Level
$271.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.14
Wall Street Target
$291.56
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.7%
Profit Margin
10.4%
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$240.32
(0%)
2-Year Target
$240.32
(0%)
3-Year Target
$240.32
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â16)
PE COMPRESSION
$239.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.0%)
$432.81
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$346.31
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 13.0%)
$294.36
(+23%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.01
Bull Case
$535.28
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.5
Base Case
$486.62
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.5
Bear Case
$165.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AJG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2026-03-30
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