HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.91
-0.21 (-1.73%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.85%
30d:
+3.12%
90d:
+3.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 14.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $11.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.49 to $12.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 48.9) compared to its historical average (32.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.99 (+76.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.99 (+76.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.49 -
$12.57
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.3% below Wall St target ($20.99)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 14.2% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.49 -
$12.57
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.80
Resistance Level
$12.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.85
Wall Street Target
$20.99
(+76.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.5%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.2% premium
PE vs Historical
48.9 vs 32.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.60
(+14%)
2-Year Target
$15.53
(+30%)
3-Year Target
$17.74
(+49%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49â33)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.9, Growth: 54.1%)
$40.20
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 54.1%)
$16.54
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 54.1%)
$14.06
(+18%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 14.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.82
Bull Case
$14.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.2
Base Case
$11.91
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$9.11
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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