HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.55
0.42 (3.77%)
▲
5d:
+3.87%
30d:
+0.96%
90d:
-13.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCM trades at premium valuation expecting 18.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: HCM trades at premium valuation expecting 18.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $11.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.79 to $11.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 50.4) compared to its historical average (30.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 18.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.77 (+88.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.77 (+88.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.44
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 88.5% below Wall St target ($21.77)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 18.9% growth with 0.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.62
Resistance Level
$11.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
50.44
Wall Street Target
$21.77
(+88.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.5%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+18.9% premium
PE vs Historical
50.4 vs 30.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+18.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.73
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$16.33
(+41%)
3-Year Target
$19.41
(+68%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 50→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.55
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 50.4, Growth: 65.0%)
$38.98
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 65.0%)
$16.02
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 65.0%)
$13.62
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 12.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.91
Bull Case
$13.95
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$11.55
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$8.84
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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