HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$312.97
1.45 (0.47%)
▲
5d:
-1.54%
30d:
+0.18%
90d:
-15.21%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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3 traders called HD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$417.36
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$259.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $312.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $305.86 to $323.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.21 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.21 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$305.86 -
$323.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($370.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$305.86 -
$323.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$296.67
Resistance Level
$322.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.79
Wall Street Target
$370.21
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$302.95
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$293.26
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$283.88
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$312.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$368.83
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$350.02
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 3.8%)
$297.52
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.08
Bull Case
$375.78
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$341.62
(+6%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$217.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.8 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$344.69
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lloyd Doggett
BUY
2026-03-26
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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