HG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HG - Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Class B Common Shares
$34.96
0.19 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-2.21%
30d:
+0.23%
90d:
+9.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.40
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HG is currently trading at $34.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.59 to $36.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.69, while resistance sits at $36.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.57 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $33.69, while resistance sits at $36.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.57 (+10.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.59 -
$36.02
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($38.57)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.6% growth with 13.0% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.59 -
$36.02
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.69
Resistance Level
$36.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.38
Wall Street Target
$38.57
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.7%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.22
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.52
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$38.87
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.75
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -5.0%)
$81.54
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: -5.0%)
$29.99
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: -5.0%)
$25.49
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.78
Bull Case
$31.34
(-10%)
Analyst growth -18.1%, PE expands to 6.6
Base Case
$28.49
(-19%)
Market implied -18.1%, PE stable at 6.0
Bear Case
$23.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Bradley E Cooper
BUY
99 shares
2026-04-08
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