JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$55.69
1.09 (2.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.98%
30d:
+5.83%
90d:
+12.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.50
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $55.69, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.54 to $56.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.45, while resistance sits at $57.84.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.33 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.45, while resistance sits at $57.84.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.33 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$51.54 -
$56.26
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($61.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.54 -
$56.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.45
Resistance Level
$57.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.02
Wall Street Target
$61.33
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
159.8%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.86
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$57.14
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$58.45
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 27.7%)
$195.93
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 27.7%)
$113.63
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 27.7%)
$96.59
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$76.87
(+41%)
Analyst growth 26.9%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$69.89
(+28%)
Market implied 26.9%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$37.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
