JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$52.33
0.55 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
-5.1%
30d:
-5.85%
90d:
-0.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: JEF is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.05
15.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $52.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.84 to $56.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JEF scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.50 (+17.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JEF scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.50 (+17.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$53.84 -
$56.47
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($61.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.84 -
$56.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.61
Resistance Level
$56.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.52
Wall Street Target
$61.50
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
159.8%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.70
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$53.07
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$53.44
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.40
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 27.7%)
$189.70
(+263%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 27.7%)
$108.91
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$92.57
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$72.59
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.9%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$65.99
(+26%)
Market implied 26.9%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$35.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
