JEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$62.81
0.71 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+21.72%
90d:
+64.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 24, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JEF trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: JEF trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.74
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $62.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.71 to $59.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JEF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.71 -
$59.94
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
Protect Your Profits
JEF is technically overbought (RSI 80). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.71 -
$59.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.31
Resistance Level
$59.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.42
Wall Street Target
$63.50
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 11.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.89
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$71.24
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$75.87
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$62.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.4%)
$182.58
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 21.4%)
$112.50
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 21.4%)
$93.05
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.98
Bull Case
$108.82
(+73%)
Analyst growth 57.0%, PE expands to 23.3
Base Case
$98.92
(+58%)
Market implied 57.0%, PE stable at 21.1
Bear Case
$42.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
