Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$45.64
0.61 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+1.65%
30d:
-2.85%
90d:
-18.3%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: JEF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.38
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.74
19.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $45.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.47 to $47.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JEF scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JEF scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$44.47 -
$47.62
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.9% below Wall St target ($55.17)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.47 -
$47.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.67
Resistance Level
$45.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$55.17
(+20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.13
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$42.68
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$41.27
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$45.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$160.56
(+252%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 21.4%)
$81.62
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 21.4%)
$69.37
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.75
Bull Case
$59.57
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$54.15
(+19%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$30.54
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 11.2
Stabilization Target:
$50.64
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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