Is JEF stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, JEF is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JEF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of JEF stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for JEF to be between $52.63 and $55.64. The current price is $51.96.

What is the analyst price target for JEF?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for JEF is $60.67. This implies a potential upside of 16.8% from current levels.

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

SECURITY BROKERS, DEALERS & FLOTATION COMPANIES

$51.96

-1.97 (-3.65%) ▼

5d: -4.24%

30d: -5.22%

90d: -12.91%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your JEF Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 05, 2026 21d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $55.23 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JEF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$97.23

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$60.37

13.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $51.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.63 to $55.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $51.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.67 (+16.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $52.63 - $55.64

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 73.3%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.67)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $52.63 - $55.64

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $51.30

Resistance Level $56.14

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.76

Wall Street Target $60.67 (+16.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 35.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 159.8%

Profit Margin 23.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.3% premium

PE vs Historical 11.8 vs 11.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $52.64 (+1%)

2-Year Target $53.32 (+3%)

3-Year Target $54.01 (+4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→11) PE COMPRESSION $51.90 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 26.2%) $179.22 (+245%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 26.2%) $104.49 (+101%)

Bear: (PE: 10.0, Growth: 26.2%) $88.81 (+71%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 14.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58

Bull Case $72.55 (+40%)

Analyst growth 23.4%, PE expands to 16.4

Base Case $65.96 (+27%)

Market implied 23.4%, PE stable at 14.9

Bear Case $36.34 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced JEF Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.

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