Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JEF - Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
$45.97
0.72 (1.59%)
▲
5d:
-3.59%
30d:
-13.1%
90d:
-16.17%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JEF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: JEF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.19
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.24
19.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $45.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.91 to $53.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.05, while resistance sits at $48.77.
Market Sentiment: JEF scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.67 (+21.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $44.05, while resistance sits at $48.77.
Market Sentiment: JEF scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.67 (+21.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.91 -
$53.51
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding JEF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($55.67)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 29% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.91 -
$53.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.05
Resistance Level
$48.77
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.17
Wall Street Target
$55.67
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.41
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$42.90
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$41.44
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$46.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 21.4%)
$164.93
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 21.4%)
$82.21
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 21.4%)
$69.88
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.64
Bull Case
$63.16
(+37%)
Analyst growth 24.2%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$57.42
(+25%)
Market implied 24.2%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$31.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$51.09
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JEF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JEF price and gamma walls.
