JEF
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
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Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$47.82
-0.24 (-0.50%)
âŧ
5d:
-6.55%
30d:
+6.6%
90d:
-14.39%
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Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (63%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$44.31 â $48.19
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.6x
FAIR
vs 11.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$55.17
+15.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$45.51 / $52.19
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: JEF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.56
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.23
15.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JEF is currently trading at $47.82, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.31 to $48.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.51, while resistance sits at $52.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JEF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.51, while resistance sits at $52.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$44.31 -
$48.19
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$44.31 -
$48.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$45.51
Resistance Level
$52.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($55.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.58
Wall Street Target
$55.17
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.01
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$46.21
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$45.42
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â11)
$47.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$160.56
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 21.4%)
$85.51
(+79%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 21.4%)
$72.69
(+52%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.75
Bull Case
$63.74
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$57.94
(+21%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$32.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$50.18
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (JEF)
Bullish
7 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
6
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 31, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish social sentiment dominates around $JEF with a price target of 62.00, despite uncertainty surrounding the stock's valuation based on its returns on capital.
Key Retail Themes:
Stock price target
Valuation based on returns on capital
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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