LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$781.06
67.11 (9.40%)
▲
5d:
+9.7%
30d:
+7.24%
90d:
-17.78%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
7d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$893.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$554.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $781.05, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $697.93 to $827.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 37.8) compared to its historical average (53.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $594.84, while resistance sits at $897.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1104.89 (+59.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $594.84, while resistance sits at $897.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1104.89 (+59.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$697.93 -
$827.03
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LITE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 59.4% below Wall St target ($1104.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$697.93 -
$827.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$594.84
Resistance Level
$897.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.77
Wall Street Target
$1104.89
(+59.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
90.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.1%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.8 vs 53.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$623.92
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$561.52
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$505.37
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 38→54)
$715.86
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.8, Growth: 123.1%)
$2339.68
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 123.1%)
$1289.12
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 123.1%)
$1095.75
(+58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 37.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $18.92
Bull Case
$862.08
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.6
Base Case
$713.94
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$546.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.8 to 53.5
Stabilization Target:
$981.98
(+41.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LITE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Wajid Ali
SELL
5302 shares
2026-02-27
Yuen Wupen
SELL
3157 shares
2026-02-17
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Advanced LITE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.
