What is the fair value of LITE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for LITE to be between $721.59 and $888.39. The current price is $866.71.

What is the analyst price target for LITE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for LITE is $1148.30. This implies a potential upside of 32.5% from current levels.

LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock

COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC

$866.71

-12.57 (-1.43%) ▼

5d: -6.42%

30d: +3.97%

90d: -10.14%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your LITE Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 11, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $890.17 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 8.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: LITE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -20.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1607.21

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$997.95

13.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $866.71, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $721.59 to $888.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.2) compared to its historical average (52.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $787.01, while resistance sits at $999.67.

Market Sentiment: LITE scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1148.30 (+32.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $721.59 - $888.39

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 32.5% below Wall St target ($1148.30)
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $721.59 - $888.39

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $787.01

Resistance Level $999.68

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.25

Wall Street Target $1148.30 (+32.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 109.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 71.1%

Profit Margin -230.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -20.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 26.3 vs 52.3 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -20.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $780.04 (-10%)

2-Year Target $702.04 (-19%)

3-Year Target $631.83 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 26→52) $1258.68 (+45%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.3, Growth: 52.7%) $2925.15 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 52.7%) $2236.19 (+158%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 52.7%) $1900.76 (+119%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.3 to 52.3

Stabilization Target: $1726.59 (+99.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +99.2%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Wajid Ali SELL 5302 shares 2026-02-27

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Advanced LITE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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