LPLA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LPLA - LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
$321.06
4.03 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
+5.35%
30d:
+11.02%
90d:
+2.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPLA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LPLA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$678.95
Based on 14.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$421.58
23.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LPLA is currently trading at $321.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $281.21 to $306.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $412.43 (+28.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LPLA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $292.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LPLA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $412.43 (+28.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$281.21 -
$306.69
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.5% below Wall St target ($412.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$281.21 -
$306.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.15
Resistance Level
$292.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.00
Wall Street Target
$412.43
(+28.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$311.75
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$302.71
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$293.93
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$320.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.8%)
$1235.35
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 24.8%)
$624.15
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 24.8%)
$530.53
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.12
Bull Case
$697.47
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 31.4
Base Case
$634.06
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.5
Bear Case
$215.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$350.12
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LPLA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew J Audette
SELL
1110 shares
2026-04-15
Matthew J Audette
SELL
469 shares
2026-04-14
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-27
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