MAX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAX - MediaAlpha, Inc.
$13.43
0.63 (4.92%)
▲
5d:
+22.09%
30d:
+51.24%
90d:
+47.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MAX is 26.8% above its trading range ($10.59). Market expects 10.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: MAX is 26.8% above its trading range ($10.59). Market expects 10.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.49
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAX is currently trading at $13.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.58 to $10.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: MAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: MAX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.58 -
$10.59
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
MAX is technically overbought (RSI 86). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+26.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.67)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.1% growth expectation is conservative given 1412% recent growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to 26.8% overvaluation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.58 -
$10.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.76
Resistance Level
$13.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.78
Wall Street Target
$13.67
(+1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1412.2%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 6.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.79
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$16.28
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$17.92
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.48
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.5%)
$56.91
(+324%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 19.5%)
$22.94
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 19.5%)
$17.25
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.64
Bull Case
$28.16
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$25.60
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$8.70
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Yi
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-22
Eugene Nonko
SELL
15172 shares
2026-04-21
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22274 shares
2026-04-21
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