MC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MC - MOELIS & COMPANY
$67.18
0.85 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
-2.54%
30d:
+7.92%
90d:
+24.5%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.68
18.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $67.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.46 to $68.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.0) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $65.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.46 -
$68.82
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($71.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.46 -
$68.82
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.18
Resistance Level
$71.72
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.00
Wall Street Target
$71.00
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.7%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$66.38
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$65.98
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$67.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$179.29
(+167%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 27.7%)
$139.92
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 27.7%)
$118.94
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.78
Bull Case
$103.73
(+54%)
Analyst growth 42.2%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$94.30
(+40%)
Market implied 42.2%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$45.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$68.37
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 21, 2026 6:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Osamu R Watanabe
SELL
2765 shares
2026-02-19
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