MOELIS & (MC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$55.99
-0.30 (-0.53%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.09%
30d:
+3.17%
90d:
-18.16%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (48%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$54.48 â $58.73
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.3x
FAIR
vs 16.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$65.60
+16.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$52.39 / $63.72
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.39
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.27
22.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $55.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.48 to $58.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.39, while resistance sits at $63.72.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.60 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.39, while resistance sits at $63.72.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.60 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$54.48 -
$58.73
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$54.48 -
$58.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$52.39
Resistance Level
$63.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($65.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.33
Wall Street Target
$65.60
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 16.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.60
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$52.96
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$51.37
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â17)
$56.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.5%)
$137.51
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 23.5%)
$106.15
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 23.5%)
$90.23
(+60%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$79.34
(+41%)
Analyst growth 26.6%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$72.13
(+28%)
Market implied 26.6%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$38.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$61.68
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on MC are bullish (sentiment score +0.42) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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