MOELIS & (MC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MC - MOELIS & COMPANY
$56.32
-0.63 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-4.12%
30d:
-16.59%
90d:
-21.71%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.00
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.34
30.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $56.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.25 to $67.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.30 (+26.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.30 (+26.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$58.25 -
$67.32
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($71.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.25 -
$67.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.42
Resistance Level
$61.10
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.32
Wall Street Target
$71.30
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.11
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$50.08
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$47.23
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$56.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 26.3%)
$161.73
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 26.3%)
$113.50
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 26.3%)
$96.48
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.84
Bull Case
$86.77
(+54%)
Analyst growth 38.5%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$78.89
(+40%)
Market implied 38.5%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$38.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$67.27
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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