MOELIS & (MC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MC - MOELIS & COMPANY
$54.36
-0.70 (-1.27%)
▼
5d:
-0.35%
30d:
-5.66%
90d:
-19.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.44
31.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MC is currently trading at $54.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.92 to $59.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $51.38, while resistance sits at $58.28.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.50 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $51.38, while resistance sits at $58.28.
Market Sentiment: MC scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.50 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$54.92 -
$59.54
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($67.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.92 -
$59.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.39
Resistance Level
$58.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.16
Wall Street Target
$67.50
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Profit Margin
14.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 16.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.92
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$48.96
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$46.17
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$55.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.4%)
$155.82
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 26.4%)
$111.13
(+102%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 26.4%)
$94.46
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.83
Bull Case
$80.17
(+46%)
Analyst growth 37.4%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$72.89
(+32%)
Market implied 37.4%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$36.08
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$65.70
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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