MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$125.59
1.40 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
-0.95%
30d:
-1.61%
90d:
+28.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$149.47
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $125.59, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.00 to $130.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.7) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$125.00 -
$130.83
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($115.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$125.00 -
$130.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.66
Resistance Level
$126.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.67
Wall Street Target
$115.33
(-7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.8%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.93
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$127.69
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$129.48
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$123.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.4%)
$179.27
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 5.4%)
$145.40
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$123.59
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$162.34
(+31%)
Analyst growth 19.2%, PE expands to 23.1
Base Case
$147.58
(+19%)
Market implied 19.2%, PE stable at 21.0
Bear Case
$84.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
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