MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$129.55
0.75 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
+1.35%
30d:
+10.91%
90d:
+31.02%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MCRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.94
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $129.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.70 to $127.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (16.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $113.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.05. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $113.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$118.70 -
$127.98
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.9% above Wall St target ($113.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.70 -
$127.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.66
Resistance Level
$126.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.91
Wall Street Target
$113.50
(-11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.8%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 16.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.08
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$139.58
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$145.30
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$129.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.1%)
$157.86
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 2.1%)
$137.08
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 2.1%)
$116.52
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$164.37
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$149.43
(+16%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$88.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 3:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
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