MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$126.09
0.44 (0.35%)
▲
5d:
+1.62%
30d:
+5.81%
90d:
+8.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.93
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $126.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.60 to $125.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $126.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$120.60 -
$125.07
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($127.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.60 -
$125.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$120.50
Resistance Level
$126.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.29
Wall Street Target
$127.00
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.12
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$132.21
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$135.39
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.86
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.8%)
$154.95
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 3.8%)
$141.18
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 3.8%)
$120.00
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.28
Bull Case
$151.75
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$137.96
(+9%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$85.44
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
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