MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$120.16
0.69 (0.58%)
▲
5d:
-0.11%
30d:
+2.62%
90d:
+21.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCRI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCRI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.36
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $120.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.70 to $119.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $122.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $122.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$116.70 -
$119.83
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($113.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.70 -
$119.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.42
Resistance Level
$122.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.64
Wall Street Target
$113.50
(-5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.8%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.68
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$125.26
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$127.89
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$120.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 2.1%)
$158.80
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 2.1%)
$127.89
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 2.1%)
$108.70
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.90
Bull Case
$152.73
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$138.84
(+15%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case
$81.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2025-12-17
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