Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$110.82
-1.13 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
+1.35%
30d:
-3.37%
90d:
-10.69%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (88%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$111.07 – $116.23
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.8x
FAIR
vs 17.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$125.67
+13.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$107.47 / $116.43
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCRI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$145.20
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $110.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.07 to $116.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $107.47, while resistance sits at $116.43.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.67 (+13.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $107.47, while resistance sits at $116.43.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.67 (+13.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$111.07 -
$116.23
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$111.07 -
$116.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$107.47
Resistance Level
$116.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($125.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.79
Wall Street Target
$125.67
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.16
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$105.56
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$103.03
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$110.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.0%)
$156.83
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 4.0%)
$124.66
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 4.0%)
$105.96
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.31
Bull Case
$137.00
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$124.54
(+12%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$76.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$119.34
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MCRI)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment prevails on StockTwits with one message expressing optimism about $MCRI.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 2:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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