Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$121.89
2.28 (1.91%)
▲
5d:
+1.08%
30d:
-1.59%
90d:
-4.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MCRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.76
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $121.89, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.29 to $124.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $124.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $124.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$120.29 -
$124.50
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($127.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.29 -
$124.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.73
Resistance Level
$124.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.68
Wall Street Target
$127.00
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.35
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$124.83
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$126.33
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$122.20
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.8%)
$155.72
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 3.8%)
$136.48
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 3.8%)
$116.01
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.16
Bull Case
$147.27
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.9%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$133.88
(+10%)
Market implied 11.9%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$81.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 8:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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