MCRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$125.13
2.38 (1.94%)
▲
5d:
+2.83%
30d:
-3.7%
90d:
+6.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MCRI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.93
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $125.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.79 to $129.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MCRI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$120.79 -
$129.20
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($126.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.79 -
$129.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.28
Resistance Level
$125.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.15
Wall Street Target
$126.50
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 17.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.01
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$130.95
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$133.96
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.49
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.8%)
$160.04
(+28%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 3.8%)
$140.11
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$119.09
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.23
Bull Case
$149.44
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$135.85
(+9%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$83.47
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Farahi
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-16
John Farahi
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-10
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