Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$112.68
-0.82 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
-0.8%
30d:
-4.55%
90d:
-7.4%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCRI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCRI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.76
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $112.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.05 to $120.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.50 (+12.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.50 (+12.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$114.05 -
$120.08
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($126.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.05 -
$120.08
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.80
Resistance Level
$118.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.34
Wall Street Target
$126.50
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.10
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$109.55
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$108.01
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$113.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$153.32
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 3.8%)
$126.17
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$107.24
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.24
Bull Case
$137.96
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.5%, PE expands to 20.0
Base Case
$125.41
(+11%)
Market implied 10.5%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$77.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$117.90
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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