Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort Inc
$117.55
1.37 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
-0.16%
30d:
-0.86%
90d:
-7.54%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MCRI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MCRI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.76
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MCRI is currently trading at $117.55, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.37 to $122.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $114.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MCRI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $114.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MCRI scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$117.37 -
$122.58
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($127.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.37 -
$122.58
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.72
Resistance Level
$122.65
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.05
Wall Street Target
$127.00
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
20.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.43
(0%)
2-Year Target
$117.32
(0%)
3-Year Target
$117.20
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$117.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$157.49
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 3.8%)
$131.62
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 3.8%)
$111.88
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.30
Bull Case
$139.87
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.4%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$127.15
(+8%)
Market implied 9.4%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$79.00
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.0 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$117.90
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MCRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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